That’s exactly what happened in 2019, when Trump first imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. The yuan depreciated enough to offset the tariffs, leaving dollar prices largely unchanged and U.S. sales steady. Chinese exporters took the hit, earning fewer dollars per sale.

The president imposed tariffs on Japan, one of America’s closest allies, that would have been alarming just months ago. And markets went up.

With the Trump administration setting 15% as a floor for tariffs, companies and economists are warning of higher prices later this year.